19 Media and Technology predictions for 2019
Every year Nic Newman, a Senior Research Associate at the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism, produces an excellent report with predictions for Journalism, Media and Technology Trends in the year ahead. I am fortunate that Nic often asks for my input; and occasionally I am able to offer something useful.
This year, inspired by similar posts in previous years by Paul Bradshaw (and at the encouragement of Nic), I’m sharing my email response to Nic’s queries. I’ve tidied this up a bit for Medium, but broadly speaking, this is the email I sent him last weekend.
Key predictions:
1. The tide will continue to turn against the tech titans
The steady flow of negative stories about Facebook that have dominated late-2018 will continue. It feels like there’s been so many of these revelations in the past year, that it’s easy to lose track. (Fortunately, BuzzFeed has an excellent timeline on this subject.)
The Cambridge Analytica revelations feel like old news, yet they’re less than a year old. I don’t think we’ve heard the last of these types of revelations.
Far from it.
2. This will lead to further discussions about how to regulate, or whether we should break-up, the big players
But, ultimately, I don’t think there’s the political will (or understanding) about how to potentially do this.
3. Facebook usage will decline and stagnate in the US
Instead, what we will see is Facebook use continuing to decline in its home country. We’ve already seen large numbers of young people deleting the app.
Many of those those who have a Facebook presence, are already pretty inactive.
They keep it due to Facebook groups (often used for class, or their hobbies) or as a means to keep in touch with older relatives (e.g. Mom and Dad) but they seldom post anything.
They’re busy with Instagram instead.
Older users (and I’m seeing this with many of my peers) are opting to delete the app — and potentially their profiles — as a result of data breaches and privacy concerns. Those who keep it, are often doing so purely for Messenger.
4. Nonetheless, media companies, will continue to pursue commercial partnerships with the social networks
There’s strong reasons for publishers to be more wary about getting into bed with Facebook et al. However, their reach, and more importantly their cash, will continue to be a lure.
Two quick examples in this field to note: Snapchat’s expansion into original shows; and Spotify’s move into original podcasts, which includes a Spotify-exclusive podcast, called El Chapo, from VICE.
5. Apple News isn’t the savior of the industry
As a consumer, I love Apple News. It introduces me to a much wider variety of news sources than I would otherwise get from my different social feeds. And it’s super easy to use.
For publishers, however, the financial rewards are yet to be proven.
6. Stories and Podcasts become the “go to” formats for 2019
Stories are set to overtake news feeds as the primary source of updates for many users.
7. But there’s a real risk of “story fatigue”
Yes, businesses and brands need to embrace this trend.
However, issues with the user experience (e.g. lack of preview that you get with text) and the ease of calls to action (and whether this takes you out of the app — ala Facebook pre-Instant Articles), and sheer volume of stories, may all become issues.
Expect attempts to remedy this to be messy.
8. Podcasts will continue to be hard to monetise for many
Volume of podcasts will also be an issue. We’re probably already at peak-podcast, there’s simply too many to listen to.
For example, just look at the growing number of morning briefing podcasts from the NYT, Washington Post and the Guardian, as well as a slew of others.
As a result, many new efforts, including a lot of really good ones, may fail to find an audience — or the size of audience — that they need to survive.
9. Voice will continue to enjoy something of a gold rush
The entry point for digital assistants (Alexa et al) is relatively cheap, which helps. This has been a key driver in the rapid take-up of these products.
Although plenty of consumers have legitimate concerns about privacy (what’s recorded, what’s not etc.) and are therefore very wary of this technology.
10. Despite the fact that these devices (smart speakers) are seldom used for news, publishers will still try and crack this nut
They need to find the right format, and — as with mobile alerts — this may require finding a new style of reporting to punch through. As a result, I expect to see lots of innovation in the year ahead.
11. It’s not just Black Mirror that’s experimenting with interactivity
Disney (and others are doing something similar) has launched an app for Google Home which plays music and audio effects through your smart speaker while you’re reading aloud a Disney children’s book.
It does this by tracking where you are in the book, to then provide sounds related to that exact point in the story.
12. Publishers will start doubling down on loyalists
2018 was the year of the paywall. (Bloomberg, Wired et al.) However, there’s only a finite amount of money consumers have to spend on media. This means that people will start to make tough decisions on what to buy, and not buy.
I expect publishers to try and find opportunities to double, or triple, dip with loyalists. (NYT is a good example of this.)
Aside from core subscriptions, or memberships, what are the additional offerings — and tiers — where, for a fee, you can leverage extra revenue from loyal users e.g. events, ad-free content offerings, exclusive content etc.?
13. The biggest loser from this? Local media
And in particular, local newspapers. Marquee brands (NYT, Atlantic, New Yorker, WaPo etc.) have a big enough gene pool to tap into. Their “hit rate” doesn’t need to be that high.
Smaller outlets, who already have a much smaller potential audience, can’t operate in the same way.
It also means that media diets are likely to become more constricted, as consumers start to access content from a smaller range of publishers.
14. The prevalence of paywalls will act as a cap on scale
User numbers may plateau or decline. You can’t grow indefinitely.
As a result, reducing churn, and working to maximise the relationship you have with existing users (in terms of data, engagement and $$$) is key.
Some quick shorter predictions:
15. Amazon will continue to (slowly) chip away at the digital advertising duopoly.
16. Twitch will grow as a platform for content streaming (real sports etc.) and distribution
Won’t just be Bezos owned titles leading the charge.
17. More Sports rights being sold to different places (e.g. Facebook, Twitter, Amazon Prime), driving cord cutting further still
Live sports are a HUGE driver for cable subscriptions in the US.
18. Emergence of new beats e.g. reporters specialising in covering areas such as bots, AI, algorithms etc.
As these increasingly shape our lives and we need to a) better understand them, b) make them (or rather the people behind them) more accountable.
19. Facial recognition being used for a variety of verification purposes
Tencent is already using this technology as part of their efforts to stop minors from playing the ‘Honour of Kings’ game.
Could it also be used by platforms like Netflix, YouTube et al. for similar purposes? Or as a means for online purchases, or to stop people sharing profiles (a big issue for Netflix).
Bonus prediction: Bird — not a media company, but a big disrupter.
This Inc. profile, about the electric scooter riding company, is excellent. There are obvious disruptive implications for transportation, and potentially wider environmental impacts, which they may unlock. But, for media companies, arguably the key questions is: what does mean for commuting habits e.g. drivetime radio?
What did I miss? Do feel free to add your comments or suggestions here, or via Twitter!
